Let’s get this out of the way right in the beginning: You’re not as in control of your behavior as you think you are. In fact, the context, the situation you’re in, does a lot more of the heavy lifting than you’d care to admit or know. That’s not just my opinion. It’s a foundational idea in social psychology, lovingly smashed into our faces by Lee Ross in The Person and the Situation. And if you thought that was humbling, Daniel Gilbert’s Stumbling on Happiness comes along to remind us that we’re also hilariously bad at predicting what will make us happy. So, congratulations! You’re being manipulated. By your environment and can’t even forecast your own emotions accurately. Feeling good about yourself yet? 

Before you spiral, let’s unpack this a bit. These ideas, while unsettling, are also liberating. If you really dig into them. They explain so much about why we act the way we do. Why relationships are messy, and why founders (and people in general) make dumb decisions with the best of intentions.

In The Person and the Situation, Lee Ross and Richard Nisbett blow up the notion that behavior is rooted solely in personality. Instead, they argue that it’s primarily the situation. The invisible web of context, roles, and pressures that drives what we do. This is a hard pill to swallow for anyone who likes to think of themselves as fundamentally “good,” “bad,” or even just “predictable.” The truth? You’re probably none of those things. You’re situational.

The infamous Stanford prison experiment is the poster child for situational theory. Everyday college students, assigned roles as either “guards” or “prisoners,” went from normal to nightmare in a matter of days. Previously unremarkable, friendly young adults, taking on the role of the guards began humiliating and psychologically torturing the prisoners. The prisoners, in turn, became submissive, despondent, and, in some cases, outright rebellious.

This wasn’t because the guards were closet sadists or the prisoners secretly lacked backbone. It was because the situation created roles so powerful that they overrode personality. The guards had authority, uniforms, and implicit permission to act harshly. The prisoners, on the other hand, were stripped of autonomy and placed in an environment designed to dehumanize. The results? Chaos.

This experiment, while extreme, underscores how much context shapes us. We’re not isolated agents acting according to some immutable moral compass. Drop anyone into a high-pressure, role-heavy situation, and you’ll see behaviors emerge that defy their so-called “true self.”

For founders and leaders, this insight can be both humbling and enlightening. It’s easy to think success comes down to personal traits like perseverance, charisma, or strategic brilliance. But Ross would argue that this is only part of the story. Maybe even the smaller part.

Take, for example, two startups with equally talented teams and visionary leaders. One thrives because it launches during a market boom, has an office culture that fosters collaboration, and gets early investment. The other flounders, not because its leader is any less capable. Rather, because the market shifts, the team dynamics become toxic, or even because the office layout discourages communication. And there it is – the situation. The situation and not just the person dictates the outcome.

Ignoring situational factors is a surefire way to self-sabotage. As Ross puts it, “the situation doesn’t just influence behavior, it creates it.” Founders who understand this don’t just focus on hiring the “best talent” or executing “the perfect strategy.” They also shape the context. Cultivating a supportive culture, designing effective workflows, and staying attuned to market forces that go beyond their immediate control.

Now, let’s take this theory into your kitchen. Ever found yourself locked in a fiery argument over something so trivial you cringe thinking about it later? Welcome to the situational trap of relationships.

Imagine you’ve had one of those days. The traffic was horrific, your boss sent a passive-aggressive email, and you forgot to eat lunch. You walk in the door, ready for a moment of peace, but your partner casually remarks, “Oh, you didn’t take the trash out again?”. That’s all it takes. You snap, they snap back, and within minutes you’re debating whether your partner’s inability to “respect your time” is emblematic of their entire personality. It’s absurd, but in the moment, it feels like war.

Here’s what Ross’s work reveals. It’s not really about the trash or respect. It’s the situation. There it is again. Your stress, your hunger, their timing, their stress. All colliding to create a perfect storm of conflict.

The danger in relationships isn’t that situations influence behavior. It’s that we don’t recognize it. Instead, we commit what psychologists call the fundamental attribution error. The tendency to attribute someone’s actions to their personality while ignoring the situational forces at play.

When your partner snaps, you think, “They’re always so dramatic”. But when you snap? “I’m just tired, and they should understand that”. We cut ourselves slack for the situations we’re in but rarely extend the same courtesy to others.

Ross’s research offers a way out of this cycle: Stop reacting to the person and start evaluating the situation. Next time your partner loses their cool, instead of mentally filing them under “overreactor,” ask yourself what might have triggered their response. Did they have a hard day? Are they feeling unappreciated? This simple shift can de-escalate conflicts and build empathy, which, let’s face it, most relationships could use more of.

At first, the idea that we’re so deeply influenced by context might feel a bit disheartening, as though we’re all just puppets on situational strings. But the flip side is this: If situations shape behavior, then changing the situation can change the behavior. This is empowering for both leaders and partners.

As a leader, you can create environments where collaboration thrives and innovation flourishes simply by tweaking the context. Set clear goals, encourage open communication, and design spaces where people feel safe to challenge ideas without fear.

As a partner, recognizing situational dynamics can transform how you navigate conflict. Instead of doubling down on who’s “right” or “wrong,” focus on reshaping the circumstances that fuel your disagreements. Maybe the trash argument isn’t about the trash at all. It’s about shared responsibilities or feeling heard. Address that, and the bickering about bins might just disappear.

Why This Matters?

Ross and Nisbett’s work doesn’t just explain why people act the way they do. It gives us tools to shape those actions. If you’re managing a team or navigating a marriage, understanding situational theory allows you to approach conflicts and challenges with curiosity instead of judgment. And when you do, you don’t just resolve problems. You build stronger connections, better systems, and, ultimately, a better you.

If Ross makes us rethink the present, Daniel Gilbert makes us laugh-cry at how we imagine the future. In his book Stumbling on Happiness, Gilbert dives into why we’re so terrible at predicting what will make us happy. Or miserable. Spoiler alert: it’s because our brains lie to us. Constantly.

Take this example: You’re sure buying that new Tesla will bring you endless joy. And sure, for the first week, it does. But then it’s just your car. The magic fades, and suddenly, you’re annoyed by how long the charging station line is. Gilbert calls this “affective forecasting”. Our ability to predict how we’ll feel in the future. And we suck at it.

One of his key points is that we overestimate the impact of major events on our happiness. Win the lottery? You’ll feel great. That is, for a while. Then life normalizes. Lose your job? You’ll feel awful. Again, for a while. Then life normalizes. Humans are remarkably resilient and adaptable, which is good news when bad things happen, but bad news when you think that one thing will finally make you happy.

For founders, Gilbert’s insights are especially relevant. How many entrepreneurs have poured their life savings into an idea, convinced it would bring them both riches and fulfillment, only to realize that they’re miserable? The grind, endless stress, one to many failed pitche and you’re done felling it. It’s not just bad luck. It’s bad forecasting.

Entrepreneurs often fall victim to what Gilbert calls the “focusing illusion”. The belief that one aspect of life (success, money, or that Tesla) will disproportionately impact happiness. They ignore the broader context. How their daily routines, relationships, and health will also affect their well-being. So they chase goals that, even when achieved, don’t deliver the satisfaction they expected.

The solution? Instead of asking, “What will make me happy in the future?” ask, “What small, sustainable practices make me happy now?”. Focusing on daily joy rather than imagined future bliss creates a foundation for long-term satisfaction.

Here’s another important aspect to consider: Your imagination isn’t just bad at predicting the future. It actively distorts it. When we imagine future events, we fill in the blanks with assumptions, many of which are wrong. For example:

• You imagine that winning a prestigious award will make you feel validated and happy forever. In reality, it will for about a week. Then the impostor syndrome kicks in, and you’re stressing about how to top yourself.
• You imagine that failing at your startup will crush your soul. In reality, you’ll grieve, learn, pivot, and move on faster than you expect.

Gilbert’s work reminds us to stop treating our imagined future selves as all-knowing sages. They’re just as clueless as we are.

Here’s where Ross and Gilbert converge: Both highlight how much we overestimate our autonomy. Ross reminds us that the situation shapes us far more than we’d like to admit, while Gilbert shows how our imagination distorts what’s ahead. Together, they force us to confront an uncomfortable truth: We’re not as rational, independent, or clairvoyant as we think we are.

But here’s the silver lining. If situations have so much power, we can harness them to our advantage. Founders can design work environments that foster creativity, collaboration, and resilience. Couples can create routines that reduce stress and build connection. And as for Gilbert’s lessons on happiness? They teach us to focus on the present and to stop chasing the mirage of perfect future bliss.

For leaders, the implications of these ideas are profound. Want a more innovative team? Don’t just hire creative people; create situations where creativity thrives. That might mean reducing stress, encouraging debate, or offering psychological safety. Want to make better decisions? Recognize how much your environment and emotional state influence your thinking.

And when it comes to planning for the future, remember Gilbert’s advice: Be skeptical of your instincts. Instead of focusing on “winning” or achieving some nebulous future goal, ask what daily practices will make your journey worthwhile. As Gilbert puts it, the secret to happiness isn’t about getting what you want; it’s about wanting what you get.

And in Relationships? Stop Blaming and Start Adapting

Understanding situational theory can make you a better partner. Instead of blaming someone for their actions, consider the context shaping them. Is your co-founder snapping because of stress? Is your partner distant because of external pressures? Context isn’t an excuse, but it is an explanation. Understanding it can help you respond with empathy instead of frustration.

On the flip side, these insights can stop you from expecting relationships to “complete you.” No relationship, no matter how perfect, can meet every imagined expectation. Instead of pinning happiness on the ideal partner or flawless dynamic, focus on nurturing the relationship you have. That’s where real connection grows.

We’re shaped by our situations, blind to our own biases, and hilariously bad at predicting what will make us happy. But that’s not a reason to despair. It’s a reason to laugh, adapt, and embrace the absurdity of it all.

For founders, leaders, and anyone trying to make sense of the chaos, these ideas offer a roadmap. Recognize the power of context. Question your assumptions about the future. And above all, stay curious about the beautifully flawed humans. Including yourself. We humans are the ones who make life unpredictable and endlessly fascinating.